Valued Customers
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 19.6 | 17.2 | 20.0 | -0.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 16.1 | 11.8 | 14.0 | +2.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | ✓ 8.4 | 9.9 | 8.0 | +0.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 18.0 | +11.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 8.9 | 8.7 | 10.0 | -1.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 11.3 | 13.2 | 12.0 | -0.7 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 1.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | -6.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | -3.6 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 14.5 | +12.4 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 17.0 | +8.8 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.0 | -1.1 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 22.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 6.0 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | ✓ 14.5 | 15.5 | -1.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | ✓ 9.9 | 15.2 | -5.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | ✓ 6.6 | 11.5 | -4.9 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | ✓ 22.2 | 17.3 | +4.9 |
| Devin Neal | RB | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 8.0 | 11.1 | -3.1 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 12.0 | 7.2 | +4.8 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 4.1 | 8.5 | -4.4 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 10.6 | 10.8 | -0.2 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf (bench) | WR | BE | 13.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
Week 14 features a strong starting lineup anchored by Jacoby Brissett's exceptional BOOM probability (67%) against the Rams in a high-scoring game (47.5 O/U). Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the WR1 with ECR #1 ranking, while Rashee Rice faces Houston's elite defense but maintains WR3 status. Bucky Irving returns from injury in favorable Tampa weather, though snap count concerns persist. The RB2 slot remains weak with Spears facing Cleveland's tough run defense in cold weather.
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 17.2 | 20.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB1 | Bucky Irving | Unk | 11.8 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB2 | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 21.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR2 | Rashee Rice | HOU | 18.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 8.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Marvin Harrison Jr. | LAR | 13.7 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.5 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 7.5 | 7.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - 67% BOOM probability from MC + high game total (47.5) + ECR QB8 vs QB12. Love facing winter storm at Lambeau.
FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Jameson Williams - MHJ more consistent floor, same upside. Williams boom/bust profile less reliable. MHJ ECR WR13 vs Williams WR16.
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Emanuel Wilson - Spears has role despite tough matchup vs CLE. Wilson backup only.
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 12
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 67% BOOM prob! ECR: QB8 START. High game total (47.5), close spread. 300+ yds/game in 5 starts. MHJ back helps. 20.0 within BOOM [12.9-30.9] - selecting BOOM mode based on extraordinary MC signal + context alignment.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 8
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: RB23 FLEX. MC: MODERATE [7.9-19.9]. Returning from shoulder/ankle injury per Schefter - 'will get touches but not overdo it'. Perfect weather (77F Tampa). 14.0 within MODERATE accounting for injury snap count.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: SIT recommended. MC: MODERATE [2.9-14.9]. CLE 9th vs RB, cold/rain weather, low game total (41.5). Even split with Pollard. 8.0 within MODERATE on lower end - unfavorable setup.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: Unk
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR1 MUST START. MC: MODERATE [12.6-24.6]. JSN 7/10 games 100+ yards. 22.0 within MODERATE range - not pushing BOOM despite elite ranking as weather (rain) + road game adds variance.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 1
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR13 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-17.9]. Returning from appendectomy + heel issue (QUESTIONABLE Week 13). Brissett connection growing. LAR 21st vs WR = favorable. 14.0 within MODERATE - health uncertainty caps upside.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 21 | ECR: 13
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% BOOM but HOU #1 defense vs WR is tough. ECR WR3 MUST START. TD odds +750 = low ceiling signal. Prop line 39.5 yds very low. 18.0 within MODERATE [9.7-21.7] - elite floor, capped ceiling vs elite D.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: 3
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.
Context: O/U: 48.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 16
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 27
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: TE6 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-14.9]. 537 yds, 3 TDs season. Good weather Tampa. 10.0 within MODERATE - solid TE1 play.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 6
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0
Notes: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0
Notes: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
Notes: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5
Notes: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0
Notes: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0
Notes: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.
Win Probability
Floor: -40.1 pts | Median: +2.7 pts | Ceiling: +43.5 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 20.0 | 3.9-28.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.0-24.9 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.0-20.3 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.8-30.7 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.8-26.3 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 6.8-26.6 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-17.2 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.0-17.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 41% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 4.0-15.5 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 14% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.0 | 6.3-27.2 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-24.0 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.6-21.3 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.1-22.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 14.5 | 4.1-24.0 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.6-26.1 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 3.7-16.0 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 17.6 | 5.1-28.9 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 21.7 | 10.0-40.7 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.3 | 4.6-27.7 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 8.4 | 0.7-17.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 11.5 | 3.1-23.0 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.9-24.4 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 16.0 | 7.5-26.8 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-15.7 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 3.0-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 29% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.8 | ↑15+: 2% | ↓5-: 45% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.6-20.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.1 | 5.0-21.4 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 3.3-24.4 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 4.8-24.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.4 | 2.1-20.6 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 7.1 | 0.7-15.3 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 25% @ 23.8 | 57% @ 13.9 | 19% @ 4.3 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 24% @ 29.4 | 45% @ 18.6 | 31% @ 8.0 | 17.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 18% @ 27.1 | 36% @ 13.8 | 47% @ 6.9 | 12.9 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 41% @ 23.2 | 32% @ 15.7 | 27% @ 7.8 | 16.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 20% @ 20.4 | 58% @ 8.9 | 22% @ 3.0 | 9.9 |
| Jason Myers | K | 38% @ 13.6 | 47% @ 8.5 | 14% @ 3.5 | 9.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 23% @ 16.3 | 45% @ 10.4 | 31% @ 3.6 | 9.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 67% @ 21.9 | 6% @ 14.8 | 27% @ 6.0 | 17.1 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 25% @ 16.2 | 43% @ 7.9 | 33% @ 1.8 | 8.0 |
Consider streaming TE if Engram struggles. Hunter Henry (NE) available with 11.2 projection. Browns D/ST (5.4) or Falcons D/ST (6.7) viable D/ST streams if Rams struggle.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Shedeur Sanders | Only 2 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-11-30T14:55:10.184161