Matchup Status (Week 14)
Games Completed (11)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 19.6 | 17.2 | 20.0 | -0.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 16.1 | 11.8 | 14.0 | +2.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | ✓ 8.4 | 9.9 | 8.0 | +0.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 18.0 | +11.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 8.9 | 8.7 | 10.0 | -1.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 11.3 | 13.2 | 12.0 | -0.7 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 1.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | -6.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | -3.6 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 14.5 | +12.4 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 17.0 | +8.8 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.0 | -1.1 |
Games Pending (5)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 22.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 6.0 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: 4th and pinches
Opponent Games Completed (13)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | ✓ 14.5 | 15.5 | -1.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | ✓ 9.9 | 15.2 | -5.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | ✓ 6.6 | 11.5 | -4.9 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | ✓ 22.2 | 17.3 | +4.9 |
| Devin Neal | RB | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 8.0 | 11.1 | -3.1 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 12.0 | 7.2 | +4.8 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 4.1 | 8.5 | -4.4 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 10.6 | 10.8 | -0.2 |
Opponent Games Pending (3)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf (bench) | WR | BE | 13.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
Executive Summary
Week 14 features a strong starting lineup anchored by Jacoby Brissett's exceptional BOOM probability (67%) against the Rams in a high-scoring game (47.5 O/U). Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the WR1 with ECR #1 ranking, while Rashee Rice faces Houston's elite defense but maintains WR3 status. Bucky Irving returns from injury in favorable Tampa weather, though snap count concerns persist. The RB2 slot remains weak with Spears facing Cleveland's tough run defense in cold weather.
Key Insights
- Brissett 67% BOOM probability - highest on roster - making him the clear QB1 start over Love
- JSN: 7/10 games with 100+ receiving yards, ECR WR1 - locked in
- Rice: Despite ECR WR3, Houston #1 vs WR + low prop line (39.5 yds) = capped ceiling
- Irving: Returning from injury per Schefter - 'will get touches but won't overdo it' - temper expectations
- Allen: 61% BUST probability - AVOID, especially against elite Eagles D
- MHJ: Back from appendectomy but heel issue Week 13 - monitor pregame
- Williams: 26.9 pts Week 13 from bench hurt - consider over Spears for ceiling
- Engram: Now with DEN, splitting reps - TE streaming may be needed
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 17.2 | 20.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB1 | Bucky Irving | Unk | 11.8 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB2 | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 21.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR2 | Rashee Rice | HOU | 18.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 8.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Marvin Harrison Jr. | LAR | 13.7 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.5 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 7.5 | 7.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - 67% BOOM probability from MC + high game total (47.5) + ECR QB8 vs QB12. Love facing winter storm at Lambeau.
FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Jameson Williams - MHJ more consistent floor, same upside. Williams boom/bust profile less reliable. MHJ ECR WR13 vs Williams WR16.
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Emanuel Wilson - Spears has role despite tough matchup vs CLE. Wilson backup only.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|
Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 12
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 67% BOOM prob! ECR: QB8 START. High game total (47.5), close spread. 300+ yds/game in 5 starts. MHJ back helps. 20.0 within BOOM [12.9-30.9] - selecting BOOM mode based on extraordinary MC signal + context alignment.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 8
Bucky Irving (TB vs Unk)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: RB23 FLEX. MC: MODERATE [7.9-19.9]. Returning from shoulder/ankle injury per Schefter - 'will get touches but not overdo it'. Perfect weather (77F Tampa). 14.0 within MODERATE accounting for injury snap count.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: SIT recommended. MC: MODERATE [2.9-14.9]. CLE 9th vs RB, cold/rain weather, low game total (41.5). Even split with Pollard. 8.0 within MODERATE on lower end - unfavorable setup.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: Unk
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR1 MUST START. MC: MODERATE [12.6-24.6]. JSN 7/10 games 100+ yards. 22.0 within MODERATE range - not pushing BOOM despite elite ranking as weather (rain) + road game adds variance.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 1
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs Unk)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR13 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-17.9]. Returning from appendectomy + heel issue (QUESTIONABLE Week 13). Brissett connection growing. LAR 21st vs WR = favorable. 14.0 within MODERATE - health uncertainty caps upside.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 21 | ECR: 13
Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% BOOM but HOU #1 defense vs WR is tough. ECR WR3 MUST START. TD odds +750 = low ceiling signal. Prop line 39.5 yds very low. 18.0 within MODERATE [9.7-21.7] - elite floor, capped ceiling vs elite D.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: 3
Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.
Context: O/U: 48.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 16
Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23
Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 27
Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ECR: TE6 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-14.9]. 537 yds, 3 TDs season. Good weather Tampa. 10.0 within MODERATE - solid TE1 play.
Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 6
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0
Notes: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs Unk
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0
Notes: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
Notes: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.
Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs DAL
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5
Notes: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0
Notes: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0
Notes: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -40.1 pts | Median: +2.7 pts | Ceiling: +43.5 pts
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 20.0 | 3.9-28.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 14% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.0-24.9 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.0-20.3 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 27% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.8-30.7 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.8-26.3 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 6.8-26.6 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 3% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-17.2 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.0-17.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 41% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 4.0-15.5 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 14% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.0 | 6.3-27.2 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 6% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-24.0 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.6-21.3 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 42% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.1-22.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 14.5 | 4.1-24.0 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 16% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.6-26.1 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 3.7-16.0 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 25% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 17.6 | 5.1-28.9 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 10% |  |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 21.7 | 10.0-40.7 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.3 | 4.6-27.7 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 8.4 | 0.7-17.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 37% |  |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 11.5 | 3.1-23.0 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.9-24.4 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 16.0 | 7.5-26.8 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 1% |  |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-15.7 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% |  |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 3.0-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 29% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.8 | ↑15+: 2% | ↓5-: 45% |  |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.6-20.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.1 | 5.0-21.4 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 10% |  |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 3.3-24.4 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% |  |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 4.8-24.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 11% |  |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.4 | 2.1-20.6 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 7.1 | 0.7-15.3 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 25% @ 23.8 | 57% @ 13.9 | 19% @ 4.3 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 24% @ 29.4 | 45% @ 18.6 | 31% @ 8.0 | 17.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 18% @ 27.1 | 36% @ 13.8 | 47% @ 6.9 | 12.9 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 41% @ 23.2 | 32% @ 15.7 | 27% @ 7.8 | 16.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 20% @ 20.4 | 58% @ 8.9 | 22% @ 3.0 | 9.9 |
| Jason Myers | K | 38% @ 13.6 | 47% @ 8.5 | 14% @ 3.5 | 9.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 23% @ 16.3 | 45% @ 10.4 | 31% @ 3.6 | 9.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 67% @ 21.9 | 6% @ 14.8 | 27% @ 6.0 | 17.1 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 25% @ 16.2 | 43% @ 7.9 | 33% @ 1.8 | 8.0 |
Waiver Wire Notes
Consider streaming TE if Engram struggles. Hunter Henry (NE) available with 11.2 projection. Browns D/ST (5.4) or Falcons D/ST (6.7) viable D/ST streams if Rams struggle.
Injury Concerns
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 14 Discrepancy Log
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Shedeur Sanders | Only 2 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-11-30T14:55:10.184161