Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-30 14:55

Matchup Status (Week 14)

94.7 - 91.6 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (11)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB ✓ 19.6 17.2 20.0 -0.4
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 16.1 11.8 14.0 +2.1
Tyjae Spears RB RB ✓ 8.4 9.9 8.0 +0.4
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 18.0 +11.4
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 8.9 8.7 10.0 -1.1
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 11.3 13.2 12.0 -0.7
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 1.0 7.5 7.0 -6.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 5.0 -3.6
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 14.5 +12.4
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 17.0 +8.8
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.9 13.7 14.0 -1.1

Games Pending (5)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 22.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 9.0
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 6.0
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 8.0
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
94.7 Starter Actuals
31.0 Remaining Proj
125.7 Est. Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (13)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB ✓ 14.5 15.5 -1.0
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB ✓ 11.6 20.9 -9.3
Rico Dowdle RB RB ✓ 9.9 15.2 -5.3
Michael Wilson WR WR ✓ 6.6 11.5 -4.9
Rome Odunze WR WR ✓ 2.8 13.5 -10.7
Trey McBride TE TE ✓ 22.2 17.3 +4.9
Devin Neal RB RB/WR/TE ✓ 8.0 11.1 -3.1
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 4.0 8.7 -4.7
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 12.0 7.2 +4.8
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE ✓ 9.0 9.3 -0.3
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE ✓ 4.1 8.5 -4.4
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.0 11.0 +1.0
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE ✓ 10.6 10.8 -0.2

Opponent Games Pending (3)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
DK Metcalf (bench) WR BE 13.3
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 8.5
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 10.0
91.6 Opp Actuals
0.0 Opp Remaining
91.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +34.2 pts

Executive Summary

Week 14 features a strong starting lineup anchored by Jacoby Brissett's exceptional BOOM probability (67%) against the Rams in a high-scoring game (47.5 O/U). Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the WR1 with ECR #1 ranking, while Rashee Rice faces Houston's elite defense but maintains WR3 status. Bucky Irving returns from injury in favorable Tampa weather, though snap count concerns persist. The RB2 slot remains weak with Spears facing Cleveland's tough run defense in cold weather.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettLAR17.220.0BOOMHIGH
RB1Bucky IrvingUnk11.814.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB2Tyjae SpearsCLE9.98.0MODERATELOW
WR1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaATL21.922.0MODERATEHIGH
WR2Rashee RiceHOU18.118.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TEJuwan JohnsonTB8.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXMarvin Harrison Jr.LAR13.714.0MODERATEMEDIUM
KJason MyersATL8.59.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/STRams D/STARI7.57.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - 67% BOOM probability from MC + high game total (47.5) + ECR QB8 vs QB12. Love facing winter storm at Lambeau.

FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Jameson Williams - MHJ more consistent floor, same upside. Williams boom/bust profile less reliable. MHJ ECR WR13 vs Williams WR16.

RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Emanuel Wilson - Spears has role despite tough matchup vs CLE. Wilson backup only.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosBoom%Mod%Bust%Confidence

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 12


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 67% BOOM prob! ECR: QB8 START. High game total (47.5), close spread. 300+ yds/game in 5 starts. MHJ back helps. 20.0 within BOOM [12.9-30.9] - selecting BOOM mode based on extraordinary MC signal + context alignment.

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 8


Bucky Irving (TB vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: RB23 FLEX. MC: MODERATE [7.9-19.9]. Returning from shoulder/ankle injury per Schefter - 'will get touches but not overdo it'. Perfect weather (77F Tampa). 14.0 within MODERATE accounting for injury snap count.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: SIT recommended. MC: MODERATE [2.9-14.9]. CLE 9th vs RB, cold/rain weather, low game total (41.5). Even split with Pollard. 8.0 within MODERATE on lower end - unfavorable setup.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: Unk


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.

Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: WR1 MUST START. MC: MODERATE [12.6-24.6]. JSN 7/10 games 100+ yards. 22.0 within MODERATE range - not pushing BOOM despite elite ranking as weather (rain) + road game adds variance.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 1


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: WR13 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-17.9]. Returning from appendectomy + heel issue (QUESTIONABLE Week 13). Brissett connection growing. LAR 21st vs WR = favorable. 14.0 within MODERATE - health uncertainty caps upside.

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 21 | ECR: 13


Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% BOOM but HOU #1 defense vs WR is tough. ECR WR3 MUST START. TD odds +750 = low ceiling signal. Prop line 39.5 yds very low. 18.0 within MODERATE [9.7-21.7] - elite floor, capped ceiling vs elite D.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: 3


Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.

Context: O/U: 48.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 16


Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.

Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 23


Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 27


Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ECR: TE6 START. MC: MODERATE [5.9-14.9]. 537 yds, 3 TDs season. Good weather Tampa. 10.0 within MODERATE - solid TE1 play.

Context: O/U: Unk | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 6


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 17.0

Notes: ECR: QB12 START. MC: MODERATE [9.1-24.1]. Week 13: 31/43 337yds 3TDs - hot streak. Winter storm warning for GB concerning. 17.0 within MODERATE - slight boost from ESPN for recent form, weather caps upside.


Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs Unk

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0

Notes: MC: 47% BUST prob! ROY favorite but high bust risk. CAR offense struggling. 12.0 within MODERATE [7.8-19.8] - on lower end given bust probability. Would need clearer matchup data to justify higher.


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

Notes: INJURY_RESERVE - confirmed OUT. 0.0 pts expected.


Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs DAL

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.5

Notes: ECR: WR16 START. MC: MODERATE [9.5-21.5]. High game total (48.5) + DET favored = positive script. TD odds +1200 = boom/bust profile. Week 13: 26.9 pts from bench (sting). 14.5 within MODERATE - boom potential but volatile.


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 5.0

Notes: ECR: SIT. MC: 46% BUST. Backup role at best. 5.0 within BUST [-1.3-6.2]. Do not start.


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 8.0

Notes: MC: 61% BUST prob! ECR: WR23 FLEX. PHI elite D. 8.0 within BUST [3.2-10.7]. Selecting BUST mode given overwhelming MC signal. Old age, low target share, tough matchup.


Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-11-30 14:55

Matchup Summary

53.3%

Win Probability

+2.2
Expected Margin
120.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
114.4
Opponent (Proj)
32.5
Margin Std Dev
116.5
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -40.1 pts | Median: +2.7 pts | Ceiling: +43.5 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 20.0 3.9-28.1 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 14% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.0 4.0-24.9 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 13% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.0-20.3 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.8-30.7 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 12.0 4.8-26.3 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 12% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR MED 18.0 6.8-26.6 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.5-17.2 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.0-17.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 41% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 4.0-15.5 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 14% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 17.0 6.3-27.2 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 2.5-24.0 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 5.0 0.6-21.3 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 42% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 14.0 3.1-22.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 14.5 4.1-24.0 ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 16% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 8.0 4.6-26.1 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 13% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 6.0 3.7-16.0 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 25% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 17.6 5.1-28.9 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 10% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 21.7 10.0-40.7 ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 13.3 4.6-27.7 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 13% Rico Dowdle
Devin Neal RB HIGH 8.4 0.7-17.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 37% Devin Neal
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 11.5 3.1-23.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 26% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 10.8 2.9-24.4 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 31% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 16.0 7.5-26.8 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 1% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-15.7 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 8.4 3.0-14.8 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 29% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.5-12.8 ↑15+: 2% | ↓5-: 45% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.8 2.6-20.6 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 28% Kareem Hunt
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.1 5.0-21.4 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.5 3.3-24.4 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 13.2 4.8-24.9 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 11% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.4 2.1-20.6 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 26% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 7.1 0.7-15.3 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 25% @ 23.8 57% @ 13.9 19% @ 4.3 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 24% @ 29.4 45% @ 18.6 31% @ 8.0 17.9
Tetairoa McMillan WR 18% @ 27.1 36% @ 13.8 47% @ 6.9 12.9
Rashee Rice WR 41% @ 23.2 32% @ 15.7 27% @ 7.8 16.6
Tyjae Spears RB 20% @ 20.4 58% @ 8.9 22% @ 3.0 9.9
Jason Myers K 38% @ 13.6 47% @ 8.5 14% @ 3.5 9.7
Juwan Johnson TE 23% @ 16.3 45% @ 10.4 31% @ 3.6 9.7
Jacoby Brissett QB 67% @ 21.9 6% @ 14.8 27% @ 6.0 17.1
Rams D/ST D/ST 25% @ 16.2 43% @ 7.9 33% @ 1.8 8.0

Waiver Wire Notes

Consider streaming TE if Engram struggles. Hunter Henry (NE) available with 11.2 projection. Browns D/ST (5.4) or Falcons D/ST (6.7) viable D/ST streams if Rams struggle.

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Shedeur Sanders Only 2 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-11-30T14:55:10.184161